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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.

However if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to drift the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor apparent despite his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, registered voters selected Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they likewise picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It mainly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat more frequently than not. I do think, however, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater overall.

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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the previous president indeed run.

After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty handily win the election with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of prospects dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.

I’m thankful you raised that poll, because I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.

There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her cash.

The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.

I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.