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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious successor obvious regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, registered voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat more typically than not. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody other than Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again. Not to mention that until very recently Biden also had the most affordable approval score of any president because the end of The second world war. It’s slowly inched back up, however he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s particularly true because Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.