About Next Trump Rally
Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir obvious in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mostly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead slightly typically. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decrease amongst Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that no one easily enters your mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump must the former president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you raised that survey, since I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s especially true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.