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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor obvious despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat more typically than not. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that nobody easily enters your mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for circumstances, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you brought up that poll, since I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s particularly true given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.