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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir obvious regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat more frequently than not. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats in between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea general.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump needs to the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you raised that poll, since I thought that was an intriguing method to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.