Trump V Biden 2024 Polls

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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.

But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir evident in spite of his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not exactly sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, signed up citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It mostly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead slightly more often than not. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to figuring out whether he runs once again. Not to point out that till extremely recently Biden also had the most affordable approval rating of any president given that completion of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still underwater total.

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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in arrangement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump should the former president certainly run.

If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.

I’m thankful you raised that poll, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.

There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.

The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much difficulty. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially true since Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.

I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.