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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor obvious in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again. Not to discuss that until really recently Biden also had the most affordable approval rating of any president given that the end of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still underwater general.
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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems efficient in defeating Trump must the previous president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty easily win the election with just a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you raised that poll, since I believed that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.