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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent heir apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little more often than not. I do think, though, some Democrats think anyone besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it simpler for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you raised that poll, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s specifically real considering that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.