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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.

If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious heir obvious despite his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered voters selected Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little most of the time. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea overall.

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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the previous president certainly run.

If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for circumstances, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a main race.

I’m pleased you raised that survey, since I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.

There is definitely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.

The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.

I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.