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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor apparent in spite of his age.

I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s prior to even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.

Many of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to mention that until extremely recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval ranking of any president because completion of The second world war. It’s gradually inched back up, however he’s still undersea overall.
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Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a variety of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that survey, due to the fact that I believed that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s particularly true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.