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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious beneficiary apparent despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) However I’m not exactly sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, signed up citizens selected Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty meaningless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat more frequently than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater general.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump must the previous president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for instance, that almost half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s specifically true considering that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.