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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious regardless of his age.

I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat typically. I do think, however, some Democrats think anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to identifying whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea general.
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Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you raised that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.