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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he declines to run for reelection.

But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir apparent in spite of his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead a little more frequently than not. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to mention that until very just recently Biden also had the lowest approval ranking of any president given that the end of The second world war. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still underwater general.

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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The fact that nobody quickly enters your mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the former president indeed run.

If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a prospect besides Trump in a main race.

I’m pleased you raised that survey, due to the fact that I thought that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.

There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a real run for her money.

The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much problem. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.

I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.