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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir apparent in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, signed up voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly typically. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again. Not to mention that until very just recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval rating of any president since the end of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, however he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of beating Trump must the previous president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you raised that poll, due to the fact that I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.