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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent heir apparent in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s prior to even entering the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little more frequently than not. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to figuring out whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the previous president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite conveniently win the nomination with only a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for circumstances, that practically half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you brought up that poll, since I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much problem. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s especially true because Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.