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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection. He would be 86 years of ages by the end of his 2nd term; it’s just actually hard to envision him serving at that age. Because project choices don’t always occur in an orderly fashion, it’ll be fascinating to see the length of time Biden waits before he makes a final determination about his 2024 objectives.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir apparent in spite of his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, signed up voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat more typically than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anyone besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.

Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater general.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the election with only a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m happy you brought up that survey, since I believed that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s particularly real given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.