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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It mainly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea general.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump ought to the previous president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive luggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m pleased you brought up that poll, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.