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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s prior to even entering into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat usually. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to identifying whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea general.
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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the former president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and may not be able to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for instance, that practically half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that survey, since I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.