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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, however, some Democrats think anyone aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea overall.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears efficient in defeating Trump must the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m pleased you brought up that survey, due to the fact that I believed that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one might likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially real since Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.