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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary apparent in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s before even entering the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little most of the time. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to identifying whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea general.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The reality that nobody quickly comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the former president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite easily win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m delighted you raised that survey, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much difficulty. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s especially real because Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.