The Next Trump Rally Diaries

Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.

However if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m just doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not exactly sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, signed up voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly typically. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden might be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater general.

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Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The truth that no one quickly comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears efficient in beating Trump needs to the former president certainly run.

If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.

I’m pleased you raised that poll, because I believed that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.

There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.

The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s particularly true because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.

I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.