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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.

But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent successor apparent despite his age.

I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s prior to even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little generally. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden may be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea overall.

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Is it fair to state that we’re all in arrangement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.

We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite smoothly win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a variety of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.

I’m happy you raised that poll, since I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.

There is absolutely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.

The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.

I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.