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Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection. He would be 86 years of ages by the end of his second term; it’s simply truly hard to picture him serving at that age. Because campaign choices do not constantly happen in an orderly fashion, it’ll be interesting to see the length of time Biden waits prior to he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor evident regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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And that’s prior to even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly generally. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease amongst Democrats in between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater general.
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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The reality that nobody easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump must the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you brought up that poll, due to the fact that I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.