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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.

If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent successor apparent in spite of his age.

I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

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And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little usually. I do think, however, some Democrats think anyone besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to figuring out whether he runs once again. Not to mention that until very recently Biden likewise had the lowest approval score of any president considering that completion of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still underwater general.

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Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, naturally, he does not run? Yes! The reality that no one easily enters your mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.

Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the former president undoubtedly run.

If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.

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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for circumstances, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect other than Trump in a main race.

I’m delighted you brought up that survey, because I believed that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.

There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.

The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much problem. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s specifically true because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.

I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.