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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s prior to even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea overall.
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Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the former president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty handily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for instance, that practically half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, due to the fact that I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.