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Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m just doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious successor obvious regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, signed up voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s prior to even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty meaningless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats in between the two surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to identifying whether he runs again. Not to discuss that till really just recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval ranking of any president since the end of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, however he’s still undersea overall.
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Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The truth that no one easily enters your mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for instance, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, since I believed that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s particularly true given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.