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Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running once again. I guess I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor obvious in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Which’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite worthless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea overall.
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Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite easily win the election with only a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
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You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you raised that poll, since I believed that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
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According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much problem. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s especially true given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.